A first look at Russia’s fundamentals in 2021
In the Economist Intelligence Unit democracy index 2020 Russia ranks #124 among 167 nations and is considered authoritarian, although the democracy score increased between 2018–2020 after hitting an all time low in 2018. In the Global Peace Index 2020 Russia ranks #156 among 163 nations a position that has been very consistent since 2009. According to Freedom House in 2021 Russia is not free. In Heritage Foundation index of economic freedom 2021 Russia ranks #92 squeezed between Cote d’Ivoire and Tanzania. According to Heritage warns against the government pursuit of statist and protectionist economic policies, a predicament that also applied to the United States during the Donald J. Trump presidency, yet the United States ranks #20 in 2021, applying the principle of whoever constructs the ranking outranks itself or in Spanish “el que parte y reparte se lleva la mejor parte”. According to Heritage Russia’s GDP contracted by 4.1 percent in 2020.
After the stagnant 1990s, per capita income continued to grow steadily and strongly from PPP $6,825 in 2000 to $20,490 in 2010 and $29,181 in 2019 right ahead of Turkey. GDP per capita growth was positive and spectacular between 1999–2008, under 5 percent between 2010–2019, 2.5 percent in 2018 and 1.4 percent in 2019. Income incquality index Gini dropped from 0.409 in 2013 to 0.375, it should be under 0.35. In Oxfam inequality index 2020 Russia ranks #36 overall, #49 in public services, #45 in progressive tax and #41 in workers rights.
Unemployment rate was 5.7 percent in 2020. Youth unemployment rate was 15.4 percent in 2019. 7.4 percent of total land was arable in 2018. 5.8 percent of the workforce was employed in agriculture in 2019. Budget deficit was -1.4 percent in 2017. Public debt to GDP dropped from 16.1 percent in 2016 to 15.5 percent, a level that is the envy of developed nations. According to Statista public debt to GDP will drop from 19 percent in 2021 to 17 percent in 2025. In the Tax Complexity Index 2016 Russia ranks #79 among 100 nations. Tax revenue-to-GDP dropped from 16.5 percent in 2007 to only 10.9 percent in 2019. In the financial secrecy index 2020 Russia ranks #44 among 133 nations. Russia is not listed among the 70 nations featured in the corporate tax haven index 2021.
In the World Bank cost of doing business 2019 Russia ranks #31 among 190 nations showing weak performance in protecting minority investors #57, trading across borders #99. In Transparency International corruption perceptions index 2020 Russia ranks #129 among 180 nations up 2 notches since 2012. In the police corruption perceptions index Russia ranks #36 among 100 nations. In Yale environmental performance index 2020 Russia ranks #58 among 180 nations showing weak performance in sanitaton #81, solid waste management #122, biodiversity #111, ecosystem services #113, fisheries #133, GHG per capita #42. In the climate change performance index 2021 Russia ranks #52 among 61 nations overall ahead of the United States #61 which surely ranks last; in addition Russia ranks #47 in greenhouse gas emissions, #60 in renewable energy, #45 in energy use and #57 in climate policy.
Inflation has been moderate since 2011. Russia and Turkey should embrace the same currency. Net trade in goods and services was $128.5 billion in 2019 the World’s third highest behind Germany and China, the United States ranks last with a net trade of -$576 billion in 2019. Foreign direct investment was $31.9 billion in 2019. Remittances hit an all time high of $10.4 billion in 2019. 90.4 percent of Russians used at least basic sanitation services in 2016. Tourism arrivals were 24,419,000 in 2019. Tourism receipts were $17.67 billion in 2019. Migrant stock was 11,643,000 in 2015 representing 8.11 percent of the population. In the World Economic Forum travel & tourism competitiveness report 2019 Russia ranks #39 among 140 nations, showing weak performance in travel & tourism policy and enabling conditions #105, business environment #95, safety & security #108, prioritization of travel & tourism #86, international openness #123, environmental sustainability #82.
In the World Economic Forum global competitiveness report 2019 Russia ranks #43 among 141 nations, showing weak performance in security #99, homicie rate #114, tterrorism incidence #119, social capital #113, freedom of the press #122, transparency #116, property rights #113, strength of auditing and accounting standards #97, conflict of interest regulation #97, environment-related ttreatties in force #107, quality of road infrastructure #99, health #97, healthy life expectancy #96, trade openness #116, prevalence of non-tariff barriers #103, complexity of tariffs #109, border clearance efficiency #99, internal labor mobility #72, labor tax rate #134, financial system #95, financing of SMEs #118, financial stability #120, soundness of banks #115, non-performing loans #107, banks’ regulatory capital ratio #132, imports of goods and services #128, growth of innovative companies #96, state of cluster development #101.
In Insead global talent competitiveness index 2020 Russia ranks #48 among 132 nations, showing weak performance in regulatory landscape #103, rule of law #112, political stability #103, regulatory quality #104, corruption #112, professional management #92, FDI and technology transfer #101, prevalence of foreign ownership #121, tolerance of minorities #117, tolerance of immigrants 98, quality of management schools #84, personal rights #109, personal safety #114.
Primary education completion rate was 100 percent in 2018. Lower secondary education completion rate was 100 percent in 2018. In EF English Proficiency Index 2020 Russia ranks #41 among 100 nations with a proficiency deemed moderate. Russia’s performance in the International Mathematical Olympiad has been historically very strong generally ranking among the top 3 nations, #2 in 2018, #6 in 2019 and #2 in 2020. Elena Smirnova (yelyena@mail.ru) and Elizaveta Pozdniakova (pozdniakova@fioco.ru, eliza.pozdniakova@gmail.com) are Russia’s OECD PISA 2021 project managers. In the 2018 edition Russia placed #30 overall, #30 in math, #33 in science and #29 in reading.
According to Webometrics in 2021 there are 1,071 universities operating in Russia. In QS World University Rankings 2021 Russia places Lomonosov #74, Saint Petersburg State University #225, Novosibirsk State #228, Tomsk State #250, 13 universities in the band #251–500 and 11 more in the band #501–1000. The top four universities have improved their standings significantly between 2012–2021 in what sees the decade of bonanza for Russia’s universities. In QS Top 50 Under 50 2021 Russia places Higher School of Economics #31. Russia dominates QS EECA Rankings 2021 placing 5 universities in the top 10 and 19 in the top 100.
Life expectancy was 78 years in 2018. Fertility rate was 1.57 births per woman in 2018. Hospital beds per 1,000 were 7.1 in 2018. Physicians per 1,000 were 4 in 2016. Nurses per 1,000 were 8.5 in 2017. Health expenditure per capita was only $609 in 2018 down from $807 in 2013. According to Bloomberg in 2019 Russia is not featured among the World’s 56 healthiest nations. In Bloomberg health efficiency index 2020 Russia ranks #53 up from #54 in 2019 and ahead of the U.S. #55. In the World Happiness Report 2021 Russia ranks #76 among 149 nations down from #68 in 2019.
According to the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation the three leading causes of death in Russia in 2019 were ischemic heart disease, stroke and lung cancer, with the incidence of Alzheimer’s disease, colorectal cancer and COPD increasing as cause of death between 2009–2019. Prevalence of diabetes dropped from 7.6 percent in 2010 to 6.1 percent in 2019. Traffic related mortality per 100,000 dropped from 18.1 in 2013 to 18 in 2016 and was still exceptionally high, should be under 5. I discuss traffic policy and road safety in Chapter 13 Cubistmo section Dominican Republic. Homicides per 1,000 dropped from 12.7 in 2018 to 8.2 in 2018 still among Europe’s highest. Suicides per 1,000 were 31 in 2016, the World’s second highest only behind Lithuania. I discuss suicide prevention in detail in Chapter 4 Balticland section Lithuania.
In the Global Hunger Index 2020 Russia ranks #18 among 107 nations with a level of hunger considered low. Prevalence of stunting dropped from 12 percent in 2012 to 9.5 percent in 2020. In the Food Security Index 2020 Russia ranks #24 among 113 nations, #20 in affordability, #34 in availability, #30 in quality and safety and #27 in natural resources and resilience.
Military expenditure was 4 percent of GDP in 2020 down from 5.5 percent in 2016 but still the World’s 14 highest. In GlobalFirePower Military Strength Index 2021 Russia ranks #2 among 140 nations with active military personnel of 1,014,000 and a defense budget of $42.1 billion. Alexander Petrovich Kalashnikov is head of the prison administration in 2021. According to World Prison Brief prison population total was 479,400 in 2021, prison population rate per 100,000 was 332 in 2021 down from 729 in 2000 and 609 in 2010 and prison system occupancy level was 68 percent in 2020.
